In November, Trump was elected the new President of the United States, reducing uncertainty in the U.S. stock market, and the “Trump trade” continued, with U.S. stocks continuing to surge. Bitcoin hit a new all-time high, while uncertainty increased to varying degrees in other global markets. The U.S. CPI in October met expectations, and Powell recently stated in a speech that the economy is relatively strong and there is no hurry to cut interest rates, meaning the Fed’s balance between inflation and growth is tilting more towards inflation. Given the current pressure on inflation in the U.S. economy, the Fed needs to consider the pace of rate cuts. Gold was heavily hit at the beginning of the month due to the strong dollar and Bitcoin’s diversion, but later rebounded due to the major escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, entering a volatile mode, with most gold producers seeing declines this month. Copper also fell sharply due to the strong dollar, with producers seeing volatility and declines.
In China, the demand side continued to show signs of improvement from September, with a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in real estate sales area and a further rebound in retail sales growth from 3.2% in September to 4.8%. The “trade-in” policy subsidies have had a significant boost on durable goods consumption, and the pre-positioning of the Double 11 shopping festival has also had an impact. But overall, it is still mainly benefiting from exports and domestic policy support, with an unstable foundation. Further recovery still requires sustained policy efforts, and the market has expectations for the December meeting.
In December, the situation in the Middle East changed dramatically, with the downfall of the Assad regime in Syria supported by Russia and Iran, which could have a huge impact on the future direction of the entire Middle East and global geopolitics. The People’s Bank of China announced the resumption of gold purchases of 160,000 ounces in November, while the World Gold Council reported that other central
